A fresh look at strategy under uncertainty: An interview

Although even the highest levels of uncertainty don’t prevent businesses from analyzing predicaments rationally, says author Hugh Courtney, the financial crisis has shown us the limits of our tools—and minds.

McKinsey & Company
McKinsey Quarterly
A fresh look at strategy under uncertainty: An interview

Hugh Courtney’s book, 20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World, was published the day before the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. As the economist and former McKinsey associate principal recalls, in the following weeks interviewers often asked him, "Does this change everything? Is this stuff still valid? The world is so much more uncertain." Says Courtney, "The honest answer then was that the only thing that had changed was our perception of risks and uncertainties that were always there. And it’s the same answer I give today about the current global business and financial situation."


A fresh look at strategy under uncertainty: An interview

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